Pay attention to these secretly popular sub-genres

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I decided to look at every single Steam game released in 2022 that earned at least 1000 reviews. There were under 500 indie games this year that reached that distinction (as of today).

My intention was to understand what genres Steam shoppers really enjoy playing. In today’s blog I want to point out a few genres that fans really loved, there isn’t much competition, and they can reasonably be developed by a small team.

This blog is just one slice of my full report on what sold well in 2022. On Wednesday January 25th I am giving a live lecture walking through EVEN MORE trends that I observed. Here is a preview:

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If you are already a member, click here to save your spot for the live lecture.

So what genres could be hot on Steam in 2023?

Forager-likes

This is Novalands, a game inspired by Forager’s core gameplay loop.

In 2019 a little pixel art crafting game named Forager got super popular. It has this very tight exploring, looting, crafting, core gameplay loop. The interesting thing was that it captures a lot of what makes Minecraft addicting but it strips it down to just the most exciting parts. There is no vast open world, just a tightly corralled play space but with unlimited combinatory possibilities.

Trying it is believing.

Soon after Forager’s launch, the development team disbanded, and the game updates stopped. This Forager vacuum left a very hungry fanbase without an alternative. But then, in 2022 a couple forager-likes released demos and they went BIG! These early previews (full launches soon) indicate real potential.

Outpath is a 3D version of Forager. The free prologue earned the team almost 2000 reviews and has over 200 daily active players. This should be a big game when the full version launches in 2023.

Novalands is another Forager-like that should be launching soon too. It has already earned 110,000 wishlists mainly from this very popular free prologue version of the game. You can play it here: Nova Lands: Emilia’s Mission. The prologue earned 1,100 reviews.

Additional analysis:

The games business is very very risky so development teams disappear all the time leaving popular games and their enthusiastic audience abandoned. So even if you don’t want to make a Forager-like, look for other recently abandoned games with an active audience begging for more.
You must reproduce the core gameplay loop the fans love and improve on what is broken. Be careful because changing or omitting a beloved feature can be disqualifying within the community.
Furthermore, if you change the game too much you will not be satisfying the fans and they will ignore you because you are no longer in their beloved genre.
There is a very fine line between what defines a game as one genre or the next and crossing that line can put you outside what the fanbase is looking for. Focus on what makes that genre work.
Look for missing features (like multiplayer) to add.
Look to “improving” the graphics with a new style or implementing a 3D game if it was 2D or make it a 2D game if it was 3D.
Look to change the theme. Changing the setting can differentiate you. However, be careful not to put a “wholesome” graphic veneer on a hardcore game because you might alienate both the original audience and be too hardcore of a game for wholesome fans.
Don’t expect the audience to wait too long. If you are trying to revive a game that was abandoned in the 1990s, there probably isn’t as hungry a fan base. They moved on.

Low-Fi Horror

You might assume it takes cutting edge graphics to scare jaded gamers, but 2022 proved that very simple pixel art can evoke horrific reactions. 2022 saw the release of many low-fidelity horror games that did very well.

Here are a few examples:

Additional analysis:

Pixel art horror is a great option for small teams just starting out. The art budget is much smaller and you don’t have to create super long narratives with fully voiced characters, and huge sprawling 3D environments.
These games force you to hone your writing craft. Your story must be truly terrifying. You cannot hide behind jump scares in pixel art.
One benefit of a 2D pixel art game is that it can have a much shorter development time so that even if your game fails, you didn’t overinvest in development.
Many of these games are free and probably didn’t make much money. However, money doesn’t have to be the primary driver of success. You can get your name out there, build up a reputation, prove to publishers that you can ship. Then make another game.

Single Player Extraction Shooters

In my blog from last week, I wrote about Zero Sievert which grossed over $1,000,000 within the first week of release. A major driver of the game’s success was that it capitalized upon a white-hot genre called Extraction Shooters. It distinguished itself among a crowded field by making it 2D and single player. Turns out there was a huge subset of Extraction Shooter fans who wanted a less intense experience.

SurrounDead (released in 2022) is another single player Extraction Shooter that did VERY well. I estimate it earned about $800,000. Unlike Zero Sievert, it is 3D, but low poly. Many players expressed that games like Escape from Tarkov are too intense. These simplified graphics have allowed people to play in a form that better suits them.

Additional analysis:

Twin Stick shooter is a genre that a lot of developers pick as their studio’s first game. Unfortunately, Twin Stick Shooters just don’t sell very well. However, Extraction Shooters do! If you can bolt on a deep loot system, and changing around the meta game, you could make your Twin Stick Shooter into a real contender.
Although Zero Sievert and SurrounDead are more approachable versions of Escape From Tarkov, they are not “Casual.” These players want a challenge, but not an intense multiplayer one. A big mistake a lot of indies make is that they make a game too easy buy trying to make the game “casual.” But, by doing this they alienate the core audience. You must understand how much challenge these players want. Read my blog post on the 10 reasons you shouldn’t make games for the casual audience.

If you are making a top down or FPS single player shooter that doesn’t seem to be getting much attention, consider making a quick pivot by modifying the core game loop and tapping into the ravenous Extraction Shooter craze.

Will these genres still be hot?

This is the number 1 question I get the moment I write about genres. Video game genres don’t shift as fast as people think. The two most popular genres on Steam are City Builders and 4X. In 1996 I built a PC so that I could play SimCity and Civilization II. Deep complex sandbox games are the lifeblood of Steam and will be for a long time.

But what you should do is play every game in the genre and the genres that influenced it. Look at what the games that are in production now are doing. Look at what the reviews are saying. Try and project where the genre is going and shoot for that.

Summary

Your game’s genre is the biggest marketing decision you will make. Unfortunately many first time developers (hell even veteran devs) underestimate how important and how subtle just a few game design decisions can impact the sales of their game.

Sometimes developers try to release a game that they enjoyed in the 90s but it flops. Game design is like fashion, it comes in waves and something that is popular 10 years ago is often stale today’s audiences.

Sometimes developers don’t even consider genre and make a game that is totally incomprehensible to Steam shoppers. Players don’t know what to make of it so they skip the game in favor of an experience they have a better understanding of.

Even a few tiny rule changes can tip a game from a popular genre and into a weird uncanny valley that either isn’t identifiable or doesn’t have an audience. If you are releasing a game you must be aware of the subtle genre conventions. Violating too many conventions can have a big impact.

Always be aware of what is popular on Steam and be ready to act. The original design for Fortnite was not a Battle Royale. But, with the success of Player Unknown Battle grounds, Epic made some quick changes to the metagame to turn it into a Battle Royale. It became one of the most popular games ever made.

Even in 2022, when the developers of rogue-like dungeon-crawler Rogue Soulstone saw the popularity of Vampire Survivors, they quickly suspended development on their main project, forked development, and changed the meta game to match the bullet heaven conventions, and released Soulstone Survivors to earn millions in sales.

If you are long in development, and your game isn’t getting much traction, consider doing a quick pivot, and adapting your game to capture the excitement of a genre that is very popular.