SUMMER SALE BLOG MARATHON: This is the last week of my course summer sale. To celebrate this deal, I am writing a blog post every day in countdown. I have never discounted my everything bundle this low. EVERY SINGLE COURSE I have released in the past is now cheaper than buying just one course when off sale.
On with the blog…
Let’s go back to the data from yesterday’s study on the June 2026 Steam Next Fest
I discovered that there is a very slight indication that SNF success is more correlated to momentum earned in the two-weeks before launch than raw wishlist count.
Like if we look at some of the statistical tools to illustrate. The closer a number is to 1 the stronger correlation.
| Statistic | Base Wishlists (WL_Before_SNF) | Momentum (WL_Velocity_June1_14) |
| Pearson r (raw) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| Spearman ρ (rank correlation) | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Log-log Pearson r | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| Log-log r² (variance explained) | 58% | 64% |
Using these various statistical tools you can see that there is a slight indication that prioritizing momentum before Steam Next Fest rather than total wishlists is correlated to success.
Even if you take a qualitative approach and look at the cumulative bucket chart I built, you can see these viral games outperform their expected range by a lot. Even compared to previous years. It seems you can now have a real break out hit without a lot of wishlists before SNF. See the red circles below:
This is new. This is neat. But this is also scary.
My previous advice on how to do well in Steam Next Fest was very easy. I could just say “do the last SNF before launch.” The data was clear. Your goal was to gather as many wishlists as possible. The longer you wait. The better your chances.
Now it is murky. So how do you decide which one to do?
Qualitative study
If data gets murky and I am chasing my tail, I like to look at real games that found real success.
What are some games that “momentum-maxxed” and didn’t “base-maxx”?
Let’s look at what types of games did better by maximizing momentum.
Cat Mail Co.
Cat Mail Co. is kind of like a wholesome cozy version of a job simulator of working in a post office. You have to take orders from customers, put stamps on them, and make sure you keep your post office clean. It is a great game.
They also did an amazing, all-in, momentum only strategy. They launched their Steam page days before Steam Next Fest. Then launched for sale just 1 month later. They did great. They are sitting on 1500+ reviews.
Their performance in June SNF 2026 was amazing. This outlier 42,000 I showed here. That is Cat Mail Co. They went into Steam Next Fest with 5293 wishlists that they earned in just a few days.
This is risky. This is survivorship bias. Don’t try this at home kids. But it is still awesome to deconstruct how it worked.
The key factors that made momentum-first strategy viable:
- The team has released games before. They were in basically the same genre: crafty-buildy with some wholesome elements. For example: Fish Stick Protocol, The Witch’s Cookbook. This gives them the know-how for Steam, and makes them more known in the wholesome community and influencers.
- Cat Mail Co is in a “good genre” of crafty-buildy-strategy-SIMULATIONY games.
- The graphics are great, the graphics are cute, the graphics are wholesome. All good fits for this genre.
- The game is built on top of a gameplay mechanic that has been proven to work such as Parcel Simulator or Order 13 or Easy Delivery Co.
You should definitely play this demo. It is fantastic. It is also still up even though the game has released.
Speak
Speak is a social deduction game starring mobsters and red telephones.
Similar to Cat Mail Co. they also launched their Steam page and demo days before the June Steam Next Fest. They only had 694 wishlists before the start of Steam Next Fest but they had an outsized result. This red circle around 13,000 wishlists is Speak.
The key factors that made momentum-first strategy viable:
- The developer went viral on Tiktok with 1 MILLION views during the launch of their Steam page. Link to the Tik.
- This developer knows how to use TikTok to get views. I wrote about how they used TikTok to make their last game go viral. Read this post
- This isn’t the developer’s first game. They made The Matriarch; a successful game in the same Social Deduction genre.
You should play the demo because it is still live!
I AM YOUR BEAST
I AM YOUR BEAST was not in the June 2026 Steam Next Fest. But they did pull off the Steam page announce -> Demo -> Steam Next Fest strategy. I wrote about how they pulled off this strategy here
I AM YOUR BEAST got 60,000 wishlists in 2 weeks by pairing the announcement of their game and demo with the PC Gaming Show.
The game was published by Xalavier Nelson Jr.’s studio Strange Scaffold; a well known and beloved developer.
The key factors that made momentum-first strategy viable:
- Well known studio and team.
- Many previously produced games.
- A guaranteed slot in PC Gaming Show; a very good showcase that was timed to occur just before the June Next Fest.
Survivorship bias
Momentum-maxxing is still risky. In the survey data, I found 5 games that had over 3000 base wishlists, went in with over 3000 wishlists in momentum in the last 2 weeks, and still all of them got fewer than 1000 wishlists from Steam Next Fest. That is not good. Just because you are momentum-maxxing, doesn’t mean you will automatically be a success.
This is why I am so cautious about saying “forget total wishlists, only worry about momentum.” Momentum-maxxing is a high-risk, medium-reward strategy. Notice in the following chart that there is only 1 game in my survey that had low base, high momentum. If you have a low base, it is very hard to generate momentum.
This Table shows games that earned more than 3000 wishlists and the strategy they took to get there:
| Low Momentum (<2000) | High Momentum (>2000) | |
| Low Base wishlists (<2000) | 3 of 47 hit 3,000+ (6%) | 1 of 1 hit 3,000+ (100%) |
| High Base wishlists (>2000) | 10 of 37 hit 3,000+ (27%) | 28 of 34 hit 3,000+ (82%) |
The best strategy is to do both. Gather a bunch of wishlists and try to get a bunch of momentum right before Steam Next Fest.
So should you momentum-maxx or base-maxx?
How to Momentum-maxx: be very strategic about what you reveal and when. Maybe don’t launch a Steam page until 1 week before SNF. If you have a Steam page, don’t launch your demo until just before the event. Then in the 2 weeks before SNF announce announce announce, get into festivals like Summer Showcase, or PC Gaming show, go viral on social media. Which SNF do you pick? The first one where you can get all those events to line up at the same time.
Base-Maxxing is where you get a page up as soon as possible, launch a demo as soon as possible, get that demo working as good as possible through lots of iteration. Which SNF do you pick? The last one before you launch.
How to decide what to maxx:
Basically, if you are inexperienced, this is your first game, you have never made a demo. Base-maxx. You will fail the first time. You don’t want to risk all these magical, and difficult things happening at the same 2-weeks. That is very hard to coordinate.
If you are experienced releasing games, you have had a hit game in the past, you have a big following, you might consider speeding things up and going with the Momentum-maxxing strategy.