Pal world is the most-played non-valve game on Steam right now (526,000 players)

Why? Developer Pocketpair found a perfectly unmet desire in the marketplace: Pokemon… but with Guns.  

Now any time a game hits it big people immediately try to think they might be able to replicate that success. In a recent blogpost I said Indies should look for opportunities to do a “fast follow” if a game becomes a hit.

So can you fast follow Palworld? What else can we add guns to and have another hit? Kid Icarus with guns? Wii Fit with Guns? Chibirobo with Guns?

In today’s blog post I will look as to whether this would work or not to waste your time… why it won’t.

TL;DR why it won’t work

  • Most Nintendo-style games already have guns
  • Many hit Nintendo games are hits because of the Intellectual Property associated with it, not the novel gameplay.
  • Most Steam players don’t actually like Nintendo-style games.
  • To make the next Nintendo-game with guns you need to fly very very close to their IP without tripping an IP-related lawsuit.
  • You shouldn’t take too many lessons from the #1 hit game, instead look for broad based trends across many games. 
  • BUT! I still think you could make another creature-collector with guns.

What Nintendo games can we add guns to?

Let’s do a fun experiment where we look at many of the hit Nintendo Properties and see if it would be successful if we added guns. I looked at the top 20 Nintendo franchises from this blog post: Top 20 Nintendo Franchises which I found by googling “Top Nintendo Franchises.” It isn’t a perfect list but it will do for now. 

Regarding the section named “Recommend making a game in this genre,” I base my recommendations off simple genre benchmarks by looking at all the games released between 2019 – 2024 and then comparing them to whether they are better or worse than Platformers or Horror games. (I used VGInsights to pull this data). To see my benchmarks see the footnote below this list:

Super Mario Bros

  • Is adding guns unique? – No, people figured out it would be cool to add guns to Mario within 2 years when Konami released of Contra.
  • Should you add guns to this genre? – RISKY! Platformers are the most oversaturated and underperforming genres.
  • Examples: Too many to list.Blazing Chrome is one successful version (but rare)

Pokémon

  • Is adding guns unique? – Nope, Palworld did it first!
  • Genre – Creature collector
  • Should you make this game with guns? – Yes. Creature collectors are HOT! It is a genre that fits well with the Steam player base (see section below for more details). Just because Palworld did it first doesn’t mean people won’t like more of it.
  • Examples – TemTem, Bugsnax, Cassette Beasts, Slime Rancher 2, Ooblets

The Legend Of Zelda (Breath of the Wild mostly)

  • Is adding guns unique? – Far Cry 2 did this years before Nintendo did it. In fact, Breath of the Wild was inspired by Far Cry 2. So it was a thing before Zelda did it. Anyway Palworld developer already released a Breath of the Wild clone with Craftopia.
  • Genre – Action RPG
  • Should you make this game with guns? – Yes with some reservations. You have to have the most beautiful graphics to stand out. BUT some developers think they can do it as their first game which is very very risky. Tunic did this well (even though it doesn’t have guns). Most will fail though.
  • Examples – Far Cry 2, Tunic

Metroid

Super Smash Bros

Mario Kart

  • Is adding guns unique? – Kind of. I mean games like Twisted Metal are kind of like Kart Racing. But those games aren’t really racing games.
  • Genre – Racing
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! On steam, Simulation racing does well, but the Casual Kart Racing market doesn’t work. This is because to attract a casual audience you need familiar (and expensive) IP. Look at the example games below and you will see they are all IP games like F1, Nickelodeon, and Sonic. Also if you want to turn this into a car combat style game you will be disappointed; for some reason those games just don’t connect with the Steam audience.
  • Examples: F1 Race Stars, Nickelodeon Kar Racers 2, Sonic AllStars Racing

Fire Emblem / Advance Wars

Animal Crossing

  • Is adding guns unique? LongVinter already exists and did well
  • Genre – Casual Town Builder
  • Should you make this game with guns? – Yes! Cozy / Wholesome and building/ crafting are perfect pairs. This is a hot genre on Steam and does well. Maybe make a grim dark animal crossing with guns?
  • Examples: LongVinter, Gourdlets

Xenoblade Chronicles

  • Is adding guns unique? No, RPGs have always had guns. I mean Final Fantasy VIII had the gunblade
  • Genre – RPG
  • Should you make this game with guns? – Yes with reservations. Yes yes Balder’s Gate 3. RPGs are huge but for indie teams, it is very very hard to make a deep deep world with enough lore that can satisfy RPG fans. They want content by the dozens of hours. Do not make an RPG as your first game. Start smaller.
  • Examples – Death Trash – The grimdark version of this game for Steam

Donkey Kong (Country or the Arcade game)

  • Is adding guns unique? – No, see Contra
  • Genre – Platformer
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! Platformer.
  • Examples – Too many to list

Mario Party

  • Is adding guns unique? – Yes
  • Genre – Local Multiplayer Board Game
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! Local Multiplayer is a winner take all genre on Steam. They can do well but riskier than other genres
  • Examples – Board games did terribly last year. No game tagged as “board game” earned 1000+ reviews. But here are some from the previous, they aren’t quite board games but they are mini games Overcooked, PlateUp!

Pikmin

  • Is adding guns unique? – Pikmin is a de-violenced RTS. So the genre already have guns.
  • Genre – Simplified RTS
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! RTS might be making a bit of a comeback but Steam players want deep deep content. The Pikmin game is all about simplifying the complexity of RTS which would just alienate Steam players.

Splatoon

  • Is adding guns unique? – Splatoon already has guns kind of but Splatoon is really a de-violencification of a shooter so kinda strange.
  • Genre – Multiplayer shooter
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! Multiplayer is hard, most players want deep deep multiplayer. I wrote about how hard it is to make sustainable multiplayer shooter.
  • Examples – Battlebit

Star Fox

  • Is adding guns unique? – Starfox already has guns!
  • Genre – On rails shooter
  • Should you make this game with guns? – RISKY! SHMUPs on Steam are very risky. On rails flight sims are too casual for most Steam players. Instead, players like space games that allow them deep customization of their ship.
  • Examples – Super Sky Arena, Sky Rogue

Luigi’s Mansion

  • Is adding guns unique? – No. I think adding guns to Luigi’s mansion is basically Resident Evil right?
  • Genre – Platformer (ish)
  • Recommend making a game in this genre – RISKY! It is a horror game yes but it is goofy horror.

Sports: Mario Tennis / Mario Golf / Mario Strikers

Footnote: Benchmark genres I compared Nintendo games against

2D Platformer – 5,654 games / Median $528 / Top 5% $59,420 – This is the genre that most indies make and it is very very hard to do well here. There are too many games released. And even if the game does succeed and end up in the top 5% of platformers it only makes $59,420. Please don’t make a platformer if you expect make a living doing this.

Horror = 5,528 games / Median = $1544 / Top 5% $416,659 – I truly believe that indies should make more horror games. Yes there are almost as many of them as platformers but you can see the Median is 3x that of Platformer and the Top 5% of games do very well. They are also cheaper / faster to make than Metroidvanias. Also fans are voracious and you don’t have to be as innovative to stand out so the competition is easier.

Metroidvania – 858 games / Median = $2,902 / Top 5% $865,321 – Metroidvanias are a mixed bag. Yes they perform better than Horror games but I really think that they are a trap for indies. They are very costly to produce, require a lot of content to satisfy fans. If you look at those top 5% games they are beautiful. It is very very competitive to get the top earning metroidvania. 

Caution releasing games on Steam that are homages to classic Nintendo Games

I always say Steam players like DEEP, Crafty-buildy-simulationy-strategy games. Players want games with endless depth and sandbox style creativity. Steam players also like grim-dark bloody games, but sometimes wholesome. Also they tolerate a lot of jank IF the game is deep enough.

Overall Nintendo is the opposite of this. It is a company that targets “non-gamers” or “casual” fans with games that have been simplified versions of complicated genres. For instance Pikmin is simplified RTS. Mario + Rabbids® Kingdom Battle is simplified Tactics. Starfox is simplified flight sim. 

Also the games are polished to such a fine degree and are as accessible as can be.

There are some Nintendo-style games that do work on Steam

There are a few Nintendo-favored genres that do work on Steam and they are the complicated ones:

  • Metroidvania is basically a grim-dark, sandbox, complicated version of Mario platforming.
  • Animal Crossing is a non-linear sandbox full of collecting, crafting, and upgrades. 
  • Harvest Moon. I know I know it was published by Natsume not Nintendo, but it has a very Nintendo-y aesthetic. Stardew Valley proved that deep gameplay with farming, relationships, and mining appeals to the Steam audience.

Finally, Pokémon and creature-collector style games can make the translation to Steam probably because it is VERY complicated. Look at this elemental effectiveness chart for Pokemon Go. 

I got my son this Pokémon Essential Handbook and it is HUNDREDS of pages of stats and evolutionary diagrams. 

When a Nintendo game is baroque enough, it MIGHT do well on Steam. 

Longvinter is an example of this. Animal Crossing is a deep deep city management game. Thus “adding guns” to it actually worked!

Look at this game, you basically make a survivalist-style bunker.

Indie devs have to come to terms with Nintendo

For some reason fans of Nintendo games are over represented as game developers. It is like that Brian Eno/ Lou Reed’s quote “only 10,000 people bought the first Velvet Underground record but every single one of them started a band.” 

Not that Nintendo is unpopular. But, I think the dreamy, gentle aesthetic of Nintendo games appeal to us creatives. For some reason a disproportionate number of Nintendo fans became game developers and so they try to make their own version of their favorite games. However, if those developers try to publish to Steam they will learn that it is a totally different audience than Nintendo. 

Most Steam players didn’t grow up playing Nintendo games. They don’t have that same nostalgia, they don’t like those “casual” approaches to famous genres. 

I know YOU might play both Steam games and Nintendo games but you are a video game omnivore. You are reading a blog about video game marketing. You are not the typical player. The typical player specializes in PC or Switch. They have different sensibilities. 

I also find indie developers don’t consider how much IP affects the popularity of the title. Niantic’s licensed Pokemon Go is a legendary success. Before Pokemon Go, the developer released a game with a very similar game design (Geo-located, team based, competition), and it has a fraction of the popularity.

Nintendo can make just about any genre work on the Nintendo Switch as long as they include Mario, Peach, Toad, and a Goomba. Doing that takes decades of brand building and billions of dollars in marketing to work.

Also not all Nintendo IP is as popular. I always survey the backpacks the kids are wearing when I drop my son off at school. Mario, Pokemon, and Spiderman are the runaway favorites. There are 0 Legend of Zelda backpacks, 0 Earthbound backpacks.

So if you are looking at a hit Nintendo game and thinking of making a version of it on PC, first look to see if it is a hit because it has Mario in it or if it is actually a genre Steam likes.

But Palworld might be onto something

As I mentioned in my “can you add guns” table above, the Creature Collector genre is very hot on Steam. There is a big active audience that buys lots of them.

But if you look, all of these games are “wholesome” or cute. I think Palworld showed that they can maybe be a bit darker, a bit more realistic. 

There MIGHT be an opportunity to make a grim dark, post apocalyptic creature collector. You collect awful looking eldritch horror creatures, shoot others with machine guns you crafted. I think it might work. 

However, building a creature collector is very resource intensive. This is not a game for new or small teams with a short runway. 

Caution: don’t decide what to make games based on the #1 game each year

Being the number #1 game on Steam is winning the lottery. You cannot predict that success. You cannot build a model with a really detailed spreadsheet and hope to “math” your way into success. Remember, games are an artform. To get to the tip top requires a bunch of serendipitous events. I am not saying succeeding is all luck; I think getting to the top 5% of games is based on skill but to get to the top 0.001% it is luck on top of that skill.

The best goal you should have is to get into the top 5%. Every year about 500 newly released games will earn 1000+ reviews. That comes to about 3.5% of the total 14,000 released last year. Hope for that. Study all the games that are in that top 5% to find general genre trends. Then pray to become the #1 game.

If you only look at the #1 games you are trying to predict lighting striking. You will drive yourself crazy and nobody can predict what the #1 game will be. 

For more information about what type of games end up in the top 5%, I wrote about those games of 2023 in this blog post.

In general the successful genres are:

  • Horror
  • Open World Survival Craft
  • Simulation
  • Multiplayer Shooter
  • Narrative (Visual Novel, Walking Simulator, etc)
  • Vampire Survivor Likes 

In Summary

I think indie developers over-estimate how many players on Steam are Nintendo fans. I also worry that too often developers underestimate how much the Nintendo IP has to do with the success of certain games on Switch. 

For instance, Mario Kart is one of the best selling franchises ever but I think that is largely because of the audience Nintendo has locked into their ecosystem and because it features Mario: the biggest video game character on Earth. 

Nintendo made their fortune by bringing games to a casual audience that doesn’t normally play games. Steam on the other hand is a VERY hardcore audience that wants complex, niche games with a steep learning curve. For more on this check my post “10 Reasons You Should Stop Targeting Casual Gamers”

If you really want to make a Steam version of a Nintendo game, look to see if it is in a genre where there are multiple other games that have reached that top 5% status already. 

Side note

As stated above, Pal world is the most-played non-valve game on Steam right now. Right now it has 526,000 players. But! They missed a HUGE opportunity.

Last week they had a game in Steam Next Fest called Never Grave (a metroidvania that feels very Hollow-Knight-y). But they missed a huge cross promotional opportunity and it hurts my heart to see this. 

Here is how I would have fixed it

FIRST: For the week of Next Fest, add a “Wishlist widget” for Never Grave on the Palworld Steam Page

SECOND: In Palworld, add a button that says “Try our other game Never Grave” on the popup menu and main menu. 

Palworld already has a dynamic news system that allows them to dynamically update it remotely: 

Furthermore, look at this main menu! They should have a “Play Never Grave Free” button that leads them to the Never Grave Steam page.

I know I know, Palworld and Never Grave are different genres, but they are both Nintendo-like. And the population playing Palworld is SO HUGE that some percentage of players would be into Never Grave. 

This is the Steam Next Fest “Most Played Demo’s” list. Never Grave did well (it is ranked #22) but it is cutthroat out there. With just a little push from Palworld, I have no doubt they could have moved up to at least the top 10 spot and received SOOOO many more wishlists. 

One of the most powerful promotional tools in games is to already have a hit game. It hurts my heart that Pocketpair didn’t exploit this outsized advantage.